A comprehensive study conducted by the Institute of Progressive Governance (IPG) indicates that the presidential candidate representing the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, is leading over John Dramani Mahama, the candidate from the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).
During a press conference on Thursday, November 28, 2024, at the International Press Centre in Accra, IPG disclosed that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP is projected to secure a victory with 50.2% of the votes if the elections were to take place between October 15 and November 15, 2024.
If elections were held between October 15 and November 15, the NPP’s Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia would have won with 50.2%. The research also shows that former President John Mahama would have garnered 47.3% in the elections. All the other presidential candidates would have got 2.5% in the elections.
The candidate for the National Democratic Congress, John Mahama, was projected to secure a greater number of regions, totaling nine. However, Dr. Bawumia, representing the New Patriotic Party, is anticipated to win with seven regions, primarily due to the strong support in the party’s strongholds, notably the Ashanti and Eastern regions, as indicated by the report.
Dr. George Domfe, a co-presenter of the report, noted that the sample size consisted of 27,445 respondents and encompassed three electoral areas within all 276 constituencies nationwide.
The survey suggested that the National Democratic Congress is likely to win in the Greater Accra, Western North, Upper East, Upper West, Savannah, Volta, Oti, Bono East, and Northern regions.
Conversely, the research conducted by IPG indicated that the New Patriotic Party would prevail in the North East, Bono, Ahafo, Western, Central, Eastern, and Ashanti regions if elections were held during the period of the study.
Approximately 5.5% of participants expressed that they were either undecided about voting or had not yet chosen their preferred parties and candidates.
In response to inquiries following the presentation of the research findings, Dr. George Domfe highlighted that a similar organization, IPG, had previously engaged his team to conduct a nationwide survey prior to the 2020 elections, and the actual election results closely mirrored the research predictions.
He urged both major political parties to consider the report seriously as the 2024 elections approach within a week. This information follows an earlier scientific survey conducted by Prof. Smart Sarpong, Director of Research and Innovation at Kumasi Technical University, which indicated that Dr. Bawumia was leading the presidential race with 49.1%, while Mr. Mahama of the National Democratic Congress trailed with 45.8%.
The research findings also revealed that independent candidate Nana Kwame Bediako received 2.2%, and John Alan Kyerematen garnered 1.2%. Other candidates collectively accounted for 1.7%, as stated in the study titled “Endline Report.”
Prof. Sarpong, during a press conference, stated that the data indicated the possibility of the 2024 elections being decided in the first round, with the NPP having an increased chance of securing victory if their gains are effectively consolidated.
It is clear from this report that elections 2024 can be won at the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory.
